All investors must keep in mind that historical returns do not guarantee future returns. However, the past is often a useful place to look to get some sense of what to expect in the future. This article shows quantitatively that
long-term, annualized, inflation-adjusted returns on the US stock market during periods from 1950 to the present have been approximately as follows:
40 years - - - - - - - (5.0 to 7.5%)
35 years - - - - - - - (5.0 to 7.0%)
30 years - - - - - - - (4.0 to 8.5%)
25 years - - - - - - - (3.0 to 11.5%)
20 years - - - - - - - (1.5 to 13.0%)
15 years - - - - - - - (-1.0 to 14.5%)
10 years - - - - - - - (-3.5 to 16.0%)
And here's the graphical representation of the data, where each color is a different starting year, the x-axis is the number of years invested, and the y-axis is the annualized, inflation-adjusted rate of return:
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| Play with the original graph here |